Advancing Autonomous Systems: An Analysis of Current and Future Technology for Unmanned Maritime Vehicles | RAND
How will the use of unmanned vessels impact the balance of power in naval warfare between countries like the United States, China, and Russia?
The use of unmanned vessels will significantly impact the balance of power in naval warfare between countries like the United States, China, and Russia. These countries are all investing heavily in the development of unmanned vessels, recognizing their potential to enhance fleet capabilities and maintain maritime superiority. Unmanned vessels provide several advantages, such as the ability to operate in dangerous waters without risking human lives and the ability to operate autonomously for extended periods of time. This allows for increased surveillance, detection, and response capabilities. As countries like the United States, China, and Russia continue to develop and deploy unmanned vessels, they will have a greater ability to project power and influence in the maritime domain, potentially shifting the balance of power in their favor.
What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of relying on unmanned vessels for maritime operations?
Relying on unmanned vessels for maritime operations has both potential advantages and disadvantages. One advantage is the increased flexibility and efficiency these vessels offer. Unmanned vessels can operate autonomously for extended periods of time, allowing for continuous surveillance and response capabilities. They can also be easily reconfigured with modular payload systems to support a variety of missions, making them highly adaptable to changing operational needs. Additionally, unmanned vessels mitigate the risks to human lives by operating in dangerous and challenging environments. However, there are also potential disadvantages to relying solely on unmanned vessels. These vessels heavily rely on technology and communication systems, making them vulnerable to cyber attacks and jamming. The absence of human operators on board may also limit their decision-making capabilities in complex and dynamic environments, requiring additional autonomous systems and algorithms to effectively respond to unexpected changes. Moreover, the cost of developing, acquiring, and maintaining unmanned vessels may be significant, requiring substantial investments from naval forces.
What challenges need to be overcome in order for autonomous systems to effectively respond to unexpected changes in the environment?
There are several challenges that need to be overcome in order for autonomous systems to effectively respond to unexpected changes in the environment. One of the main challenges is developing robust and reliable autonomy that can adapt to dynamic and complex situations. Autonomous systems need to be able to gather and process real-time data from various sensors to understand their environment and make informed decisions. They must also have the ability to learn and improve over time through machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms. Another challenge is ensuring the security and resilience of autonomous systems. They must be protected from cyber attacks and interference from hostile forces. Robust communication systems and encryption protocols are necessary to ensure the integrity and confidentiality of data transmitted between unmanned vessels and command centers. Additionally, there is a need for clear regulations and international standards for the use of autonomous systems in maritime operations. These standards should address issues such as liability, accountability, and rules of engagement to prevent accidents and misunderstandings. Overall, addressing these challenges will require collaboration between governments, naval forces, industry, and academia to develop and implement effective autonomous systems for maritime operations.
Full summary
The increasing shift in warfighting assets towards Asia has prompted the Navy to seek new and flexible ways to adapt to the evolving threat environment. With the challenge of doing more with less, the Navy's Fifth Fleet, covering the Persian Gulf and part of the Indian Ocean, has embarked on a groundbreaking experiment. Task Force 59, consisting of the T-38 Devil Ray and Ocean Aero Triton, is exploring the use of unmanned vessels to enhance fleet capabilities.
Admiral Selby, the former chief of the Office of Naval Research, proposed the idea after receiving enthusiasm from frontline commanders in the Pacific and the Middle East. The purpose of this experiment is to develop autonomous capabilities that can respond to unexpected changes in the environment.
One significant development in this field is the Orca Extra Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (XLUUV) program. Expected to be completed by next year, Orca will revolutionize naval operations. With a length of fifty-one feet, a weight of fifty tons, and maximum diving depths of 11,000 feet, Orca is a formidable asset.
Orca's navigational capabilities, autonomy, and payload deployment engineering are currently underway. It will have a range of 6,500 nautical miles and the ability to operate alone for months at a time. Equipped with an inertial navigation system, depth sensors, and GPS, Orca can accurately navigate and surface for position fixes. It also utilizes satellite communications to report information and receive new orders.
The modular payload system of Orca allows it to support a variety of missions, including mine countermeasures, anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and strike missions. It can carry sonar payloads to detect enemy submarines and send location data to friendly helicopters and surface ships. Orca can also be armed with lightweight or heavyweight torpedoes to attack enemy submarines and surface ships.
In addition to its offensive capabilities, Orca can drop off cargoes on the seabed, such as sensors or mines, to impede enemy shipping. Its modular payload system and open architecture software make it highly adaptable and customizable based on mission requirements.
The Navy has already purchased four Orcas, indicating their plans to utilize them for real-world missions. One of the advantages of unmanned submersibles like Orca is their ability to operate in dangerous waters without risking human lives. This technology provides the Navy with an unprecedented advantage in maintaining maritime superiority.
Unmanned vessels are not limited to submarines. The U.S. Navy is investing $2.7 billion in researching and acquiring ten large unmanned surface vessels over the next five years. These vessels will play a crucial role in expanding the Navy's capabilities.
The development of unmanned vessels is not unique to the United States. China and Russia are also making significant strides in this field. China is developing large, smart, and cost-effective unmanned submarines capable of performing various missions. Russia has its own version of unmanned submarines called Poseidon, which can carry drones and torpedoes.
The use of unmanned vessels in the defense and security fields extends beyond naval warfare. Rolls Royce predicts that cargo ships will operate without human crews within the next ten years. Unmanned vessels are already being used for roles such as seaborne targets and oceanographic surveying. In the UK, companies like ASV and Thales are developing unmanned mine warfare vessels.
However, the development of autonomous systems capable of responding to unexpected changes in the environment is still a challenge. The U.S. Navy is actively exploring current and potential military applications of autonomous systems. RAND researchers have analyzed the state of the art in autonomous technology and its implications for future fleet architecture.
One of the key recommendations is to align the development of autonomy with other capabilities, as well as reevaluating force requirements. The Navy recognizes that commercial systems are unlikely to meet its specific needs and that military investment is essential for the development of effective autonomous capabilities.
The future of naval warfare lies in unmanned vessels. With advancements in technology and increasing investments, the Navy is poised to achieve and sustain ocean supremacy. Unmanned vessels provide the Navy with unparalleled flexibility, reach, and efficiency, while also minimizing risks to human lives. As autonomous capabilities continue to evolve, the Navy will be at the forefront of shaping the future of maritime operations.
